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Episode 1222: Testing the Balls and Beating the Bookies
Date May 26, 2018 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the Red Sox designating Hanley Ramirez for assignment, what Mookie Betts and Barry Bonds have in common, Shohei Ohtani’s “workload management,” Bartolo Colon’s 45th birthday, a John Jaso appearance at the Trop, a listener’s real-world use of tOPS+, and two more examples of players intentionally performing typically detrimental activities. Then Ben briefly brings on FanGraphs’ Meg Rowley(16:05) to discuss the latest Jerry Dipoto and Wilmer Font trades, work-related nightmares, and business words. After that, Ben talks to writer Rob Arthur (28:20) about the questions raised and the questions answered by MLB’s report on the ball being behind the game’s rising home-run rate, and Ben and Jeff get the skinny from sabermetrician Mitchel Lichtman (1:00:49) about his decades-long history of betting on baseball, how he built a model that beat the sportsbooks and made millions, and how and why his advantage evaporated. Topics * Jerry Dipoto & the Seattle Mariners * Alex Colome & Denard Span * Wilmer Font * Baseball writing nightmares * Business words * Rising home-run rate * MLB report about changes to the baseball * Batter changes to swing plane * Changes to baseball texture * Rawlings manufacturing process * Future changes to the ball * Mitchel Lichtman's history of betting on baseball * Changes to baseball oddsmaking * Legalized sports betting * Betting on other sports * Consulting for MLB teams Intro The Rural Alberta Advantage, "45/33" Interstitials The Minus 5, "Smoke on, Jerry" Dr. Dog, "The Truth" Earlimart, "Burning the Cow" Outro Drive-By Truckers, "Checkout Time in Vegas" Banter * Hanley Ramirez was DFA'd by the Red Sox to make room for Dustin Pedroia. * Mookie Betts is hitting incredibly well in 2-strike counts and not swinging at pitches out of the zone. Jeff was able to compare his performance to Barry Bonds. * While trying to say hello to former teammates, John Jaso was turned away by an usher at a Tampa Bay Rays game. * Shohei Ohtani was scratched from his scheduled start against the New York because of 'workload management'. * Podcast listener Logan was able to use tOPS+ in context during a work discussion. * Bartolo Colon turned 45 this week. He currently leads MLB in BB rate and * Episode 1221 follow-up: In 2016 Chase Anderson intentionally hit Alfredo Simon in order to prevent Tyler Holt from stealing home. In the 1990s Alfredo Griffin intentionally struck out in order to make the game official in case of a rain delay. Notes * Mookie Betts has a wRC+ of 212 this season. * Jeff, on Ben's idea to have brunch at 1 PM, "Just have breakfast in the morning and do something with your day." * The Mariners acquired Alex Colome and Denard Span from the Rays in exchange for Andrew Moore and Tommy Romero. * Meg and Ben briefly discuss 'business words' from their time at Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg, respectively. Pain points, cycles, and bandwith are discussed. Meg has also discussed 'business words' in her appearances on Fangraphs Audio. * The MLB commission to study the baseball concluded that there had been changes to the baseball that contributed to the rise in home-runs. * The baseball has become less air resistant, resulting in further distance travelled. It was not made clear why this change had happened. * The report indicates that batter changes in swing plane are not responsible for the increase in home-run rate. * There was some evidence to suggest that the center of gravity of the baseball has moved more towards the core of the ball. * With greater information available and more tracking going forward, MLB will have increased information to make decisions about how (or if) to alter the ball to influence play. * In the 1980s and 90s Mitchel was living in Las Vegas (as a professional poker player) and developed a sabermetric model for betting on baseball. * Mitchel said that in the 1980s and 90s baseball oddsmakers were not nearly as precise as they are now, and that he and his betting partners had an estimated 8-10% advantage when placing their bets. * Given the size of the bets he and his partners were placing, Mitchel's group would often move the betting lines for a single game based on their bets. * Mitchel estimates that his betting model has made $50-75 million, though the overwhelming majority did not go to him. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1222: Testing the Balls and Beating the Bookies * A Leaderboard With Mookie Betts and Barry Bonds by Jeff Sullivan * A tie-dyed, tank-topped John Jaso tried to say hi to his old teammates, but the usher stopped him by Michael Clair * Simon HBP while Holt steals home video * Alfredo Griffin intentional strikeout video * MLB Commission Confirms That The Baseball Has Changed by Robert Arthur, Harry Pavlidis, and BP Stats Team * Executive Summary of the Report of the Committee Studying Home Run Rates in Major League Baseball * Full Report of the Committee Studying Home Run Rates in Major League Baseball * The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code by Kit Chellel Category:Episodes Category:Guest Episodes